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Klima-Kipppunkte sind in aller Munde auf Grund dieser Kasperveranstaltung in Dubai, die von vornherein zum Scheitern verurteilt war, wie noch jede Klimakonferenz vor ihr. Neben physikalischen Kipppunkten soll es angeblich auch soziale Kipppunkte geben. . Die könnten ohne einen vorhersehbaren Auslöser tiefgreifende gesellschaftliche Veränderungen anstoßen, Verhaltensmuster, Technologien und soziale Normen verändern und verbreiten. Beispiel Finanzmärkte: Wenn nur neun Prozent der Finanzinvestoren ihr Kapital nicht mehr in die Förderung fossiler Brennstoffe lenkten, sondern damit grüne Projekte unterstützen würden, könnte das den gesamten Finanzmarkt zum Kippen bringen – in nur wenigen Tagen. So laut einer Studie vom Chef des Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung .
Ich bin bei einer Übertragung von naturwissenschaftlichen Begrifflichkeiten auf gesellschaftliche immer skeptisch, das ist mir zu mechanistisch. Oder gar gruselig, wenn zum Beispiel Seuchenbegriffe gesellschaftlich metaphorisiert werden: Der Jude ist ein Bazillus (Parasit) im Volkskörper ….
Eine Gesellschaft funktioniert nach anderen Regeln als Naturgesetze oder Axiome. Ehrlich gesagt möchte ich auch nicht in der Nähe sein, wenn auf einmal der gesamte Finanzmarkt ins Kippen gerät, die Lehman-Pleite 2008 war schon verheerend genug. Vom Börsencrash am Schwarzen Freitag 2029 ganz zu schweigen. Eine Folge davon: 4 Jahre später kamen die Nazis an die Macht.
Ich möchte allerdings auch nicht in der Nähe sein, wenn als physikalischer Kipppunkt unser Golfstrom abkackt. Präziser: wenn die AMOC Amok läuft, also die Atlantische Umwälzzirkulation versiegt. Der Artikel versucht zu beruhigen, dass bei uns in Mitteleuropa die Temperaturen sich „nur um wenige Grad ändern würden“. Es gibt Studien, die behaupten, dass das ab 2025 der Fall sein könne. Nur um wenige Grad ändern!? Das soll beruhigen? … Das würde für uns um den 52. Breitengrad herum bedeuten, dass die Nordsee monatelang zufriert, wir keine eisfreien Häfen haben, der Handel dramatisch einbricht und auf unseren Feldern statt Sonnenblumen Eisblumen wachsen, kein Mais mehr, kein Weizen, kein Hopfen, kein Marihuana etc. pp. Und nein, Tiefkühlkost ist dann keine billige Alternative, weil das Zeug dann draußen gelagert werden könnte. Wer es konkreter haben will, kann sich die Verhältnisse um die kanadische Hudsonbay angucken, die liegt am 52. Breitengrad. Kann natürlich nicht 1:1 übertragen werden, aber allein die Tendenz und Wahrscheinlichkeit dieser Entwicklung reicht mir schon.
Zur Wahrscheinlichkeit von CO2-Reduzierung, um die obige wahrscheinliche Entwicklung zu mildern, also keine fossile Energie mehr verbrennen: In den Fünfzigern wurde vorhergesagt, dass die Erdölreserven um die Jahrtausendwende verschwunden wären. Fakt ist, dass wir aktuell von soviel förderbaren Reserven wissen wie noch nie. Vor Guayana ist ein so großes Erdölfeld entdeckt worden, dass Guayana zum größten Exporteur der Welt werden kann. Die Börsenkurse der Erdölkonzerne haben in den letzten Jahren um über 20 Prozent zugenommen, ihre Gewinne sind gigantisch, zig Milliarden jedes Quartal, sie bauen ihr Kerngeschäft permanent aus.
Ob die sich von einer durchgeknallten Antisemitin aus Schweden an ihrem Kerngeschäft hindern lassen… da hab ich so meine Zweifel. Was mich beruhigt: So richtig Ahnung von diesem ganzen Klimagedöns hab ich eigentlich nicht. Vielleicht hab ich auch alles falsch verstanden und alles wird gut.
Eigentlich war mein Motto: Nach mir die Sintflut. Im Moment sieht es eher aus nach: Vor mir die Eisschollen.
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